Tropical Weather

Galveston is no stranger to tropical weather. During hurricane season, from June 1st through November 30th, Galvestonians keep a close eye on the Gulf, and to trusted weather sources. This is also the height of the tourism season for the island. We’ve compiled tropical weather data below to help you plan your travels.

National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Discussion

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu May 9 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The majority of the monsoon trough remains inland over Africa, and extends briefly southwestward off the west coast of Africa to near 12N20W. The ITCZ then begins near 08N20W and continues to 04N23W to the coast of Brazil near 02N51W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen S of 06N between 22W and 46W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The Bermuda subtropical ridge extends west-southwestward across central Florida and to the north-central Gulf. This is producing light to gentle SE winds in the eastern Gulf and moderate to fresh SE to S winds over most of the western Gulf. Seas are 2 to 4 ft E of 88W, and 4 to 6 farther west. No significant convection is occurring in the basin, but haze due to agricultural fires in SE Mexico continues to restrict visibility across large portions of the western Gulf.

For the forecast, fresh to strong SE winds will prevail across much of the Gulf through Thu ahead of a cold front. The cold front will move off the Texas coast into the northwest Gulf Thu night, and then across most of the basin through Fri. The front will slow down and weaken further as it reaches from South Florida to Veracruz, Mexico, by late Sat. Moderate to locally fresh NEly winds will follow the front through Sat. Meanwhile, fresh to locally strong winds will pulse nightly through late week off the northern and western Yucatan Peninsula. Haze due to agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico will persist in the western Gulf through Thu. Patchy fog is possible along the NW Gulf coast tonight.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A persistent broad mid to upper-level trough is over the western Atlantic, and stretches southwestward across the NW Caribbean. Scattered moderate diurnal convection is weakening across the Greater Antilles, from eastern Cuba to Puerto Rico, as this area has finally come under the western and sinking-air side of the upper trough. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring across the SW Caribbean, about the monsoon trough, to the S of 12N. The upper trough will continue to move farther northeast of the area through Thu night, with atmospheric conditions stabilizing in its wake. Abundant tropical moisture remains prevalent just east of the NE Caribbean, where active weather enhanced by the upper trough continues. Persistent daily rainfall across the Greater Antilles and NE Caribbean Islands for the past several days has left soils at or near saturation, and river levels high across this region. Please see local weather advisories for specific information on hazardous local conditions.

The Bermuda ridge is centered across the central Atlantic and extends a narrow ridge westward to central Florida. This pattern is producing moderate to fresh trades over the south-central Caribbean, with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Fresh to locally strong winds have developed this afternoon across the eastern Gulf of Honduras, where seas have built to 4 to 5 ft. The remainder of the basin is under gentle to moderate trades and seas of 3 to 4 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure centered over the central Atlantic near 30N45W will maintain a ridge extending westward to support moderate to fresh trade winds over the south-central and SE Caribbean through the weekend. Meanwhile, expect pulses of fresh to locally strong E winds at night across the Gulf of Honduras through the weekend due to the pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure over the western Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will persist elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The SW North Atlantic continues to be dominated by a broad ridge anchored on a weak high center of 1020 mb, centered near 30N45W. The remnants of a frontal trough meander along 18N to 20N between 38W and the eastern tip of Cuba. The associated pressure gradient between these frontal remnants and the ridge is producing moderate trade winds from 18N to about 24N and west of 60W and from 18N to 21N between 40W and 60W. Low level convergence across this area is combining with upper support by the upper trough described above, to produce scattered to numerous moderate convection from 18N to 23N between 42W and 62W. Seas are 5 to 8 ft in N to NE swell across this zone. To the west, stable atmospheric conditions prevail across the Bahamas and Florida, with no significant late afternoon convection present. Gentle SE to S winds and slight seas prevail W of 75W and S of 28N, becoming S to SW winds to the N of 28N.

To the E, a dissipating frontal trough extends from 31N23W to 20N37W, and marks the eastern edge of the Bermuda High ridge. Gentle northerly winds prevail between 35W and the trough. Scattered light to moderate convection is along the trough to beyond 31N. E of the trough northerly winds dominate the region from the Azores to western Africa, and are locally fresh near the coast of Africa. Long period N to NE swell is moving through this region, producing seas of 7 to 10 ft to the N of 20N and E of 50W.

For the forecast west of 55W, High pressure centered over the central Atlantic will shift slowly NE into the weekend. This will produce diminishing winds tonight. As a cold front approaches the U.S. East Coast, fresh to strong winds will develop off northeast Florida tonight through Fri night. The front will move across Florida late Fri night into Sat, bringing moderate to fresh winds on both sides of the boundary. The front will weaken late in the weekend as it moves east of 65W.

Striplin